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passengers represent a substantial proportion of expected traffic flow on the route, the
Airline Schedule Development 175
airline can decide to offer even greater frequency of departures (further increasing its
own market share of the local O-D market) and/or operate larger aircraft with lower costs
per seat kilometer on the route.
Although frequency planning is introduced here as being separate from the choice of
aircraft type for each flight on the route (i.e., “fleet assignment”), it should be clear that
the two decisions are interrelated. The airline’s supply decision for a route in fact consists
of two simultaneous choices - the number of departures per day and the number of seats
to be offered on each departure. If the demand estimates for a route suggest that 400
seats per day are required to accommodate the expected traffic, the airline can choose
to operate one frequency per day with a 400-seat aircraft or four frequencies per day
with a 100-seat aircraft. Although both choices supply 400 seats per day to the route, the
outcome in terms of this airline’s market share, passengers carried and revenues generated
will be very different, especially if there exists a competitor on the route that operates
four flights per day.
In this example, a decision to offer one flight with 400 seats will almost certainly
give the airline a relatively low market share due to its low-frequency (20%) share, with
prices and quality of service equal. Such a low market share would not likely allow
the airline to fill its 400-seat aircraft to profitable levels. Although hypothetical, this
example illustrates how frequency planning can be driven as much by the presence and
frequency of one or more competitors as by an assessment of the supply of seats required
to carry expected demand on a route. This example also illustrates how airlines have little
choice but to operate smaller-capacity aircraft with higher operating costs per seat and
per seat kilometer in competitive markets, especially those involving relatively short-haul
routes.
The objective of “load consolidation” also affects frequency and aircraft size decisions.
A single flight with multiple stops provides service to several O-D markets at the same
time. Consolidation of traffic from multiple O-D markets onto one aircraft can allow that
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